Football Predictions

Configure model

ELO predictive strength How strongly rating differences affect expected goals. Host advantage ELO points added to tournament hosts. Recent form Positive values reward recent momentum; negative values lean against it. Later-round leveling How much semi-finals and finals reduce the favorites' advantage.

Regulation-time outcome by ELO difference

Higher-rated team wins Draw Higher-rated team loses

The chart shows a neutral group-stage match. Host advantage and later-round leveling shift the effective rating difference.

Backtest model

Compare this model with the defaults across every completed World Cup and Euro.

Not run